The textbook designed IBP as a 24-36 month instrument. Most of us have quietly turned it into a monthly firefight - and called it strategic. Three checks to tell which game yours is really playing.

One day in April, The NZ Government said fuel supply was normal. The next day, they committed $21.6m to recommission emergency storage. Both true - just at different ends of the supply chain. If your IBP is reading the consumer signal, you’re planning against history. Walk it upstream. Far upstream.

Senior executives drift out of IBP meetings. The flattering story is that’s because they don’t appreciate quiet excellence. The honest one is that the process wasn’t earning their time. Fix it.

There's a room in your business where critical supply allocation decisions get made. Derivatives, futures, weather forecasts, commodity pricing.

Smart people, deep expertise - and largely ungoverned.

Some businesses have a critical allocation decision step that sits between demand and supply. Sometimes, textbook IBP processes don't have a place for it. It's still being made - just outside the cycle. Blog #30 asks: Where does this live in your business, and who owns it?

In some cases, there's a step missing from textbook IBP processes.

In dairy, you can't ignore it. The cows produce milk whether you want it or not - three days to decide what it becomes. Fresh milk, cheese, powder, infant formula. Different margins, different shelf lives, different commitments.

What's the quirk in your industry that breaks the standard model?

If your planning process tracks assumptions (and it should), someone needs to be poking holes in them. Every organisation needs a devil's advocate - someone who asks the awkward questions and makes people squirm.

Enter AI…

Annual budget season doesn't have to be a circus. If your S&OP or IBP is working, it should be a non-event. So why isn't it?

Still waiting for someone to post "AI replaced my demand planner, and this is exactly how you can do it too”

Me too. Maybe Santa knows?

Everyone's talking about AI in supply chain. Nobody's telling you where to actually start. So I wrote it down.

Merry Christmas!

If AI amplified your IBP process exactly as it runs today - would you like what you got?

Faster slides? Or faster decisions? Slicker theatre? Or genuine engagement?

AI doesn't fix dysfunction. It scales it.

That email you sent about not uploading confidential information to ChatGPT?

Your staff read it. Then uploaded their forecast spreadsheet anyway.

The answer isn't banning what you can't enforce.

Have a read👇

Confession: I do something most IBP facilitators would consider cheating.

Before every MBR, I book 15 minutes with the CEO to arm them with just enough information to look informed. I know they won’t read the pre-read, so I work with it, not fight it.

Last week: IBP theatre - meetings that run smoothly but change nothing.

This week: How to kill it.

The weapon? Silence. Twenty-seven seconds of it.

The most dangerous IBP meeting isn't the trainwreck.

It's the one that runs smoothly.

When meetings become performance instead of decision-making, IBP dies quietly, meeting by meeting.

Are you doing IBP or S&OP because it's ‘sophisticated’... or because it solves your problems?

If your team fights fires instead of looking ahead, more IBP / S&OP isn't the answer.

Often, simple beats sophisticated. Keep It Simple.

Your forecast is a promise - but it's going to be attacked. Are you ready for that?

Risks push you under the forecast line. Opportunities push you over it. Smart companies actively manage both and stay in balance.

Here's how to do it with one simple page.

Thirty-five years ago, Hubble launched into orbit. The planning was almost perfect.

Almost.

One wrong assumption cost $50 million to fix.

How much time do you spend on the assumptions behind your numbers?

Let me be clear, a CEO needs to be unreasonable, not evangelical. Here's the crucial difference and why understanding it matters for everyone in the planning process.  

"Right, we're going to fill up that warehouse and fix this DIFOT problem once and for all!"

I call that Evangelical Forecasting. But it’s Churches that are the places for faith. Businesses are for facts.

Short-term planning feels safe and manageable, but it's like navigating a boat at night with just a spotlight – you're essentially moving from crisis to crisis. Stop that!